For several races, the 2024 drivers’ championship fight appeared to be heading for an unexpectedly close conclusion, as Lando Norris whittled away Max Verstappen’s championship lead.
But Norris starts today’s race well outside the points-paying positions and the winner of the previous round, Charles Leclerc, is best placed to trim Verstappen’s healthy points lead.Clearly both drivers have only outside chances of preventing a fourth consecutive championship win by Verstappen. But just how realistic are their hopes? The situation isn’t quite as clear as it used to be, due to changes in the championship points system in recent years.
As recently as 2018, drivers only scored points based on their finishing positions in the grand prix. If a driver won a race, they could expect to take at least seven points off their rival.
That changed when the bonus point for fastest lap was introduced. Now each driver could pick up an extra point if they set the fastest lap – but only if they finished in the top 10.
The introduction of sprint races added further complexity to F1’s points system. Now drivers can score up to an extra eight points each weekend, but only at certain rounds of the championship.
Finally, in the wake of the infamous 2021 Belgian Grand Prix, F1 introduced three alternative points systems to be used in the event of shortened races. Although these haven’t been used in F1 yet, they have been seen in junior championships, such as today’s F1 race.
To stay on top of all the possible outcomes of this year’s championship, RaceFans has created a new version of its F1 Championship Calculator. As well as adding the results for any upcoming races, you can alter the results of past races to see how the championship might have turned out. Find it here:
Please make any suggestions for improvements to the Points Calculator in the comments below. Among the planned updates for future versions are revisions to formatting and layout for devices with smaller screens.
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2024 Azerbaijan Grand Prix
- Verstappen: “Important” for FIA to clarify legality of McLaren’s ‘mini DRS’ wing
- Hamilton explains suspension set-up change behind “miserable” Baku weekend
- Piastri needs “crazy” results to become title contender despite Baku win
- FIA taking new look at flexing bodywork amid intrigue over McLaren’s rear wing
- Norris knew Verstappen broke VSC rules in Baku because he did the same in Melbourne
BLS (@brightlampshade)
15th September 2024, 11:03
Going to need at least 2 dnfs for even a risk of being caught happening.
Max is a fantastic driver, and Red Bull for all their issues are still a very competitive team. Winning 7 of the first 10 races gives you a monster lead, especially when those three you didn’t win were all won by different drivers.
If this form continues into next year then that’s when the fun could start.
SteveP
15th September 2024, 14:11
An average of 8.4285 per race weekend will see him level.
Or for normal reality, 9 points better.
I have a calculator, which tells me there are 206 points available for anyone taking first place and fastest lap in everything, and 147 for second place in everything.
That’s 59 points difference. The current Max – Lando difference is 59 points.
Which means if Lando takes all the honours through to the end, and Max takes second every race, the points are level.
Nick T.
15th September 2024, 15:07
The odds of Lando winning every remaining race are like 5%, but Max taking 2nd every remaining race seems like 1% based on their car performances. A more realistic calculation would be what would the tally be if Lando averaged a second place and Max either 4th or 5th place.
Lando is a choke artist. So, it’s likely all moot.
SteveP
15th September 2024, 16:01
Lando always second and no FLs with Max 4th : Max wins by 11
Lando always second and no FLs with Max 5th : Lando wins by 6
You may be right about Lando, it’s probably more likely Ferrari will get everything right for Leclerc every race.
Yes (@come-on-kubica)
15th September 2024, 22:52
When we are all hoping for a few verstappen dnfs to make it interesting – could even pull leclerc into the mix.
MCG (@malrg)
16th September 2024, 5:50
I think hoping for a driver to have DNF’s is very poor sportsmanship and would make winning the title less of an achievement. Better to wish for good racing on track and winning it fair and square that way.