Max Verstappen, Red Bull, Spa-Francorchamps, 2023

Mixed forecasts for rain during Belgian Grand Prix weekend

Formula 1

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The Ardennes habitually serves up soggy weather for the Belgian Grand Prix and this weekend is likely to be the same. However there are differing forecasts of when and how hard the rain is going to hit.

Happily there is no indication the rain will be as dire as it was three years ago, when a persistent downpour on Sunday turned the main event into a desultory, one-lap farce. Nor is it expected to be quite as persistent as last year, when the grand prix was the only session not affected by rain.

But it seems unlikely the drivers will enjoy a fully dry Spa weekend. Some forecasts predict persistent drizzle throughout Friday, meaning both of the first two practice sessions could be wet. The same models point to further rain on Saturday morning, potentially affecting the final practice session as well, before the track gets a chance to dry out for qualifying. Sunday is then expected to be drier with a chance the sun will appear towards the end of the 44-lap grand prix.

Other forecasts, however, point towards a generally dry Friday and a much wetter Saturday. In this case drivers are likely to have to qualify on a wet track, as was the case for last year’s sprint race qualifying session (the grand prix qualifying session, on held on Friday afternoon last year, saw drier conditions at the end).

Both models point towards dry conditions on Sunday. But the weather is so variable in this region that few of the F1 teams’ strategists will take anything for granted at this stage.

What can be said with certainty is this will be a much cooler weekend than the Hungarian Grand Prix was. That’s likely to bring relief to the likes of Mercedes, who performed less well in the heat at the Hungaroring.

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Author information

Will Wood
Will has been a RaceFans contributor since 2012 during which time he has covered F1 test sessions, launch events and interviewed drivers. He mainly...

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8 comments on “Mixed forecasts for rain during Belgian Grand Prix weekend”

  1. I’d be unhappy if the race were again the only session unaffected by rain, with my clear preference being that if only a single session were dry, qualifying would be the one, but weather can change several times within a few days as always in the Spa-Francorchamps-Stavelot area.

    1. “…weather can change several times within a few days as always in the Spa-Francorchamps-Stavelot area”

      Nope. Weather can change several times within a few ̶h̶o̶u̶r̶s̶ as always in the Spa-Francorchamps-Stavelot area.

      Race day, 1997. I was there

  2. We know for sure only 1 day ahead as that front is moving unexpected around the area. But Sunday should be dry unless the wind is falling away then bets are off.

  3. “Get in there Lewis”, and Alpine might have a shot at points.

  4. @willwood that plot only shows a single column with 2005 data?

    1. Not only that, but also low-40s for race day, even though that day definitely wasn’t hot in any case.

  5. Ben Rowe (@thegianthogweed)
    25th July 2024, 16:49

    Half points 2 lap safety car “race” incoming!

    1. You are aware they changed the rules after that farce three years ago, so that “less than 3 green flags = no points”?

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