Although it’s a tired journalistic cliche to greet the announcement of a driver’s contract as ‘no surprise’, it was especially true of Oliver Bearman’s confirmation at Haas.
Bearman made a serious impression on the team with his performance and professionalism during his two appearances for them in practice sessions at the end of 2023. This year, the stars aligned for him perfectly to secure a full-time drive.First Carlos Sainz Jnr went down with appendicitis at Jeddah and Ferrari called Bearman up to make his debut in his place. An F1 rookie in a Ferrari is a rare sight, and the fact the Scuderia entrusted him with one of their cars when they might easily have called up a known quantity like Antonio Giovinazzi was a strong signal they consider him the real deal.
Everyone got to see why they rated him so highly when he got behind the wheel of an SF-24. Despite missing Friday’s practice running he was quickly on the pace in his sole hour in the car, then came within four-hundredths of a second of beating Lewis Hamilton to the final place in Q3. On race day he proved a safe pair of hands and worked his way forward to score a fine seventh place, having put both Hamilton and Lando Norris behind him.
But as one driver arrives another must inevitably leave, at least until F1 sees fit to allow an 11th team in, which they remain unfathomably hostile towards. Who will therefore have to move aside to make way for Bearman?
Unusually there are already two drivers on the grid who know they won’t be at their current teams next year and have not confirmed their next destination yet. Carlos Sainz Jnr and Esteban Ocon are both race-winners as well, and therefore more highly coveted.
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On top of that, Hulkenberg’s impending move to the-team-soon-to-be-known-as-Audi must leave either Valtteri Bottas or Zhou Guanyu Looking for employment next year. In the former’s case, that means potentially another race-winner on the market.
Haas is not thought a likely destination for Sainz, though he appears to have his pick of the remaining vacancies, except Mercedes, who are considering Bearman’s team mate Andrea Kimi Antonelli unless they can lure Max Verstappen away from Red Bull. Sainz was already weighing offers from Audi and Williams, either of which would involving displacing another driver, but Alpine is also reported to have entered the bidding.
On top of that is the largely self-contained matter of what happens at Red Bull’s second team. As its motorsport consultant Helmut Marko has spelled out, Daniel Ricciardo could lose his seat to Liam Lawson at the end of the year.
Bearman’s confirmation therefore changes fairly little in the driver market for next year, which is likely why it has been announced at this point. Sainz’s delay in deciding his future is not a factor in this.
But Bearman’s arrival means those who fear they could be left without a seat next year now know that threat is real, and may be willing to settle for less than they were holding out for before.
But don’t rule out the possibility of more unexpected driver market developments to come. “All of these driver movements here is not the end of the story,” Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff foresaw last week.
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Fer no.65 (@fer-no65)
4th July 2024, 9:21
It’s sad for Bottas, he’s a very good racing driver. It turned out to be a big mistake to go to Sauber at that point. I swear if he was at Aston alongside Alonso it’d push the team forward so much faster…
Iosif (@afonic)
4th July 2024, 15:02
Aston only has one seat available for drivers not named “Stroll”. If I recall his choices were Alfa and Williams
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
4th July 2024, 16:01
Did he have other options but sauber? I don’t think he went there willingly.
Also I don’t see how he’s first in line to lose his seat, seeing as he’s better than zhou.
notagrumpyfan
4th July 2024, 9:43
What about the continuing rumours that Mercedes offered/tested/discussed a 1-year deal with Sainz, but Sainz wants something longer term.
PS If I were Sainz I would accept that offer immediately
PPS If I were Mercedes I would not put a rookie in their second car, but use their engine partner to train them.
Fer no.65 (@fer-no65)
4th July 2024, 10:58
Same. Much better to have 1 more year in a race winning car, than a longer term in something you don’t know if it’s going to be the tail of the pack, or at best, top midfield in the short term.
Signing for a team that will *potentially* be on the rise someday almost never works. Very few drivers built something almost from the ground up. Probably the last one to do that was Webber, but by the time he joined Red Bull Newey was already there. So the potential was a bit more “real”. I can’t think of another one besides Michael when he joined Ferrari.
Jeanrien (@jeanrien)
4th July 2024, 12:00
@fer-no65 Especially given the reasoning behind the 1 year clause. Mercedes is trying to get Verstappen, if they succeed, then Sainz would be in prime position to get the RedBull seat in exchange, if not he could probably extend at Mercedes (depending how Antonelli is doing in the meantime).
With Ferrari out of the picture and McLaren locked and happy with their current line up, it surely is Sainz best bet.
Mooa42
5th July 2024, 0:54
@fer-no65
Although this is true, Audi does have a history of joining a championship and getting to the top, most recently with Carlos Sainz snr, first electric drivetrain car to win at Dakar, and when they were in WEC, first diesel car to win Le Mans. They do tend to aim high, and achieve high, it’s not the same as joining HRT or Manor.
Vulture
5th July 2024, 1:19
This is F1 though and it’s very different from what you mentioned. It’s more likely they will end up being humbled for at least a decade then leave.
Nulla Pax (@nullapax)
4th July 2024, 10:09
Probably a daft idea – but – might Sainz be holding on hoping to learn what Newey is going to do?
If Newey decided on something odd like Williams or Sauber then that would make either team a bit more tempting surely?
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
4th July 2024, 16:04
Definitely true and a possibility for sainz.
Jere (@jerejj)
4th July 2024, 11:17
In all likelihood, Sargeant, Magnussen, Zhou, & Ricciardo will end up without a drive, or at least the former three.
Phil Norman (@phil-f1-21)
4th July 2024, 11:32
Thinking about it, Sainz going to Williams would be quite an odd move I think. Whatever they do they are hardly going to be a match for Mercedes are they? OK the Merc seat may be a very short term thing but I am sure something would become available to Sainz a year later. It would be a bit messy though.
I think it seems more likely his choice is really between Audi and maybe Alpine now. I think these offer something better for the medium term? With Merc, who knows they may change their mind and keep Carlos for another year, after 2025 anyway, possibly. Kimi could then go to Williams for next year then.
Patrick (@paeschli)
4th July 2024, 12:20
I’ve got
Sainz to Alpine
Ocon to Williams
No idea who Audi and Haas are going to pick up though. Magnussen staying and Audi getting PR-machine Ricciardo is my cautious bet.
Matthijs (@matthijs)
4th July 2024, 14:09
@paeschli If I were a driver I would find it very hard to judge Alpine. On the one hand they have never delivered on their promise since I can remember. It is a shame how little they achieve with this budget (I assume). On the other hand, the progress they made the last two months is impressive. And they are a factory team after all and that is important to be successful. McLaren is the only non-works team that is successful at the moment.
Coventry Climax
4th July 2024, 12:20
It’s all speculation on where the current drivers will go, once they leave forced or by choice, their teams end of the year.
With one newcomer, one of the current drivers will have to go, as the article points out correctly.
But the answer to that question is not given.
Why? Because that’s already clear. It’s the one name not mentioned: Sargeant.
The other names is just musical chairs. Interesting, maybe, but not the answer to the question asked.
Tifoso1989 (@tifoso1989)
4th July 2024, 13:05
In my opinion Perez, Ocon, Sargeant, Zhou, Bottas, Magnussen, Hulkenberg, Ricciardo and Stroll all need to go. They are just a waste of those seats. They have had their chances and failed to deliver in the last couple of seasons. I won’t be disappointed to see anyone of them losing his seat.
notagrumpyfan
4th July 2024, 13:31
Can you also provide a list of nine aspiring F1 candidates where each of them deserves the seat more than Hulkenberg.
I’m not saying that Nico is the next Alonso, Lewis, Max, Lando, or Charles. However I’d rather see him in an F1 seat than a young driver who might have potential but who hasn’t even proven yet his/her capabilities in F2/F3/junior series. It will be difficult enough to find a hand full of deserving candidates; I doubt it’ll add up to nine.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
4th July 2024, 16:09
Absolutely no need to use “her” for a potential f1 driver nowadays, it’s already difficult to find junior drivers who would beat hulkenberg, let alone a gender who didn’t make it to f1 in 30 years.
Edvaldo
4th July 2024, 14:24
Hulkenberg took his career off life support with merits.
He should not have been there because his career was dead after 2019, but he got his shot at Haas and made it work, so fair enough for him to have secured another couple of seasons. In particular because he was never there due to any reason not related to his performances, unlike Perez and Stroll.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
4th July 2024, 16:07
Hulkenberg in particular NEVER had a chance at a top team, and he really should.
Ben Rowe (@thegianthogweed)
4th July 2024, 17:48
But when in the midfield, he looked no better than Perez or Bottas. Perez looked to have the more stand out drives of the 3 and Bottas makes the least mistakes. Hulkenberg never getting a podium is still not a good statistic. Perez and Bottas both got many when they were in midfield cars. Perez now is admittedly terrible, but I’d say Bottas and Hulkenberg are at least as good as eachother, but Bottas being in clearly the worst team is hiding it.
Janith
4th July 2024, 21:06
Bottas has been amazing this season performance wise.
Dale
5th July 2024, 21:48
Yawn. A clown with a keyboard & no clue about F1 or motorsport.
Cameron
4th July 2024, 22:38
Is being a race winner really that much of a consideration for teams? Until a few weeks ago, Norris hadn’t won a race, but he was clearly better than Ocon or Bottas. Similarly, I’d take Piastrii over either of those guys even though he’s never won a race.
GeeMac (@geemac)
5th July 2024, 10:07
Joe Saward reckons Ocon to Haas is a done deal and Sainz is most likely to end up at Williams. Given Marko’s comments last week and the fact that Lawson has a “use me in 2025 or lose me” clause in his contract I reckon he will get the nod at RB. Bottas seems to only be an option for Alpine or Williams, so for me he ends up at Alpine if Sainz choses Williams, though Doohan also seems to be a contender for that seat. The second Sauber seat is the hardest to call, but I’m sure Audi would like a bit of Ricciardo gold dust marketing even if his best days are behind him, but failing that and a lack of interest from other drivers I see Bottas as the fallback for that seat.
As such, I reckon it will shake out as follows:
Scuderia Alpha Rosso Carbs: Tsunoda / Lawson
Alpine: Gasly / Bottas or Doohan
Williams: Albon / Sainz
Sauber: Hulkenberg / Bottas Ricciardo
Haas: Bearman / Ocon
Richard
5th July 2024, 19:35
There is so much change happening in 2026 not just with rules but we have possibly half the field changing power unit suppliers, both RB teams going to Ford/RB, Aston Martin going to Honda without the RB input, Sauber switching from Ferrari to Audi and possibly Alpine switching to Mercedes. When Honda last joined F1 in ’15 it didn’t go well for several years until they switched over to the Red Bull team and chassis. Who knows what kind of compatibility problems we’ll see both with the hardware and the personnel at all these teams.
Then we have the question of what will Adrian Newey do which I could see influencing a Sainz decision.
Lastly MONEY. If you’re going to be forced to move to a team with a lot of question marks I expect a bunch of money would help lessen the blow of losing that seat at Ferrari and negotiating for that money is what I’m betting is what the holdup is now.
Dale
5th July 2024, 22:14
Stroll is a waste of a seat.
If Audi can’t convince Sainz, then Bottas is the logical continuity advantage choice.
Sainz deserved the seat Perez was gifted. Mercedes is the next logical option … Toto must wake up to reality.
Antonelli hasn’t shown anything like deserving a Mercedes F1 seat so far in F2. Even if he finds some speed from somewhere, he needs finishing. He won’t be ready for 2-3 years.
Albon is wasted at Williams.
Perez at Williams would have worked. He’s a good driver but can’t drive Max’s car, & RBR don’t want to give him one he needs .
Zhou hasn’t done enough to stay, & he brings too little in sponsorship by F1 standards.
Logan should have been gone at the end of 2023.
Ricciardo is just not fast enough anymore, but could be useful for Williams building phase.
Yuki at RB makes little sense. He hasn’t grown up yet & still melts down too often. & his main backer is leaving the Red Bull orbit.
Ocon isn’t a team player. I’d be nervous having him alongside a promising junior like Bearman.
Magnussen isn’t much of a mentor either, & he’s been destroyed by Hulk.
Lawson couldn’t even cut it in F2, how he’s still a Red Bull driver is odd. Giving him an RB seat would be like another Logan / Zhou mistake.
Mick Schumacher deserves to be in F1 more than most of these drivers. Alpine would be a good fit for him. Or even Audi.
There are at least one or two Indy drivers who are better than half the current F1 field & deserve a look in.