Yuki Tsunoda has missed his best chance to join Red Bull’s Formula 1 team, after they announced his team mate Liam Lawson will race for them in 2025.
Red Bull handed Lawson his chance to drive for their top team after just 11 starts with their junior squad. They picked him over Tsunoda, who has driven for RB (previously known as AlphaTauri) since 2021.Tsunoda undoubtedly feels hard done by that Red Bull have overlooked him. Before the end of the season, as it became clear Red Bull would replace Sergio Perez in 2025, Tsunoda made the pointed claim that he had “destroyed” his team mates while at RB.
Does Tsunoda’s claim stack up – and does Red Bull’s decision to promote Lawson instead of him make sense?
Tsunoda vs Gasly
Points on his debut in Bahrain set expectations high, but Tsunoda largely failed to live up to them in his first season. Team principal Franz Tost grew concerned following a series of collisions, but Tsunoda earned a second season at the team.
In his second season Tsunoda showed a lot more polish and potential. He ran Gasly closer in qualifying and took a larger share of the team’s points. The more experienced driver still comfortably out-scored him by almost two to one, but the improvement Tsunoda had made was obvious.
Tsunoda vs de Vries
However with Daniel Ricciardo returning to Red Bull as a reserve, the senior team quickly decided they wanted to get a measure of his abilities, and De Vries was shunted aside after just 10 races. He had not shown up brilliantly against Tsunoda during that time, but nor were his statistics disastrous for a rookie with so few starts.
Would Tsunoda have avoided the same fate 10 races into his F1 career if Red Bull had decided they wanted his seat for someone else? Unlikely.
Tsunoda vs Ricciardo
Tsunoda and the returning Ricciardo could each look upon the other as their ticket to the top team: If either beat the other comprehensively it would make a strong case for their promotion. But the final result wasn’t conclusive enough for either driver, and the picture was further complicated by Ricciardo’s enforced absence due to injury in the second half of 2023.
It wasn’t a rout, and Ricciardo arguably delivered the most impressive performances of either driver during this spell, in the 2023 Mexican Grand Prix and 2024 Miami sprint race. Perhaps those peaks gave Red Bull the impression there was more potential in the car than either driver was regularly tapping.
But Tsunoda indisputably held the upper hand by the time Red Bull finally lost patience with Ricciardo and showed him the door following the Singapore Grand Prix. This made the strongest case for Tsunoda to be considered as a Red Bull driver, and soon afterwards came word he would finally get to test for the team following the conclusion of the 2024 championship.
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Tsunoda vs Lawson
Liam Lawson’s arrival as a substitute for the injured Ricciardo at the 2023 Dutch Grand Prix was not the first time he and Tsunoda shared a team. They paired up at Motopark in Euroformula Open in 2019 and showed a worrying tendency to collide with each other.
Tsunoda is ahead of Lawson on the raw numbers, but with 76 more grands prix under his belt than his team mate, he would want the score line to be clearer. Lawson almost matched him in race results, and though the qualifying score-line is quite one-sided, there was often very little in it this year. Lawson qualified mere hundredths off Tsunoda in Mexico, Losail and Yas Marina.
That goes some way towards explaining why, though some aspects of Lawson’s performances against Tsunoda’s were not massively better than De Vries’s, Red Bull consider him a better prospect. His points-scoring, aided by a superb 10-place climb through the field in Austin, has also no doubt made an impact. In contrast, Tsunoda lost more places during grands prix this year on average than any other driver.
Then there are the intangible factors which don’t show up on graphs. Red Bull team principal Christian Horner said they were impressed by Lawson’s combative style when racing other drivers. Tsunoda’s tendency to shoot from the hip on his radio has not inspired confidence.
But opportunities like these are also a matter of timing. Tsunoda’s arrival in F1 coincided with a period when Red Bull were satisfied with Perez’s performance. Had Red Bull needed a driver halfway through 2021 – when Verstappen was locked in a title battle with Lewis Hamilton – would they have risked promoting Tsunoda?
Tsunoda vs Gasly – first 11 grands prix
To put Tsunoda’s current form into perspective with his performances against Lawson, here’s how he did in his first 11 races against Gasly in 2021. The pair enjoyed a much more competitive car, hence the higher points scores for both, but Tsunoda over his first 11 races arguably didn’t impress quite as well against his team mate as Lawson has done.
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Rob (@sundiesel)
19th December 2024, 9:58
Yes, I think Red Bull have chosen poorly again.
Yuki came from Honda didn’t he? Not one of Mr. Markos bunch? Hmmmm.
Even Daniel would have done better than Checko did in his final year.
Jere (@jerejj)
19th December 2024, 10:08
He was also in Red Bull’s driver program, but yes, his Honda affiliation stacks more & whether Daniel would’ve performed better than Checo is debatable based on his McLaren stint & the earlier B-team outings.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
20th December 2024, 0:41
This depends on whether the car suited ricciardo or not, he proved to be a driver that lacks adaptadility, but from what I read here, he likes the same car characteristics as verstappen and that can’t be overlooked, especially when he compared well to verstappen as team mates.
HAL
19th December 2024, 10:37
If Tsunado had really impressed RB, they would have promoted him regardless of his Honda affiliation.
Yuki did well, would have been great to see him promoted. But it cannot be denied that he took him a long time to stabilize. He’s clearly fast on a good day, but he’s still a bit inconsistant.
Liam is a complete roockie (11 GP experience split over 2 years and both time he had to jump mid season in a car he was discovering) and was already able to match Yuki on occasion… Yes, he is not yet the final product, but at this stage it’s very normal (something that Yuki cannot say).
So I disagree with your statement. It was probably a close call, there is uncertainties and future will tell if they were right. But the decision make sense…
pcxmac (@pcxmac)
19th December 2024, 16:15
Red Bull need someone who will lose to Max without complaining Multi-21.
Hopefully RBR fall back even harder next year and Ferrari go on to win everything. With McLaren a few tenths behind.
Dane
19th December 2024, 19:57
Sainz was such an obvious choice, even if their Dad’s relationship was “toxic” or whatever you’d think that would be worth tolerating for the results he would bring.
scss (@scss)
20th December 2024, 20:41
I have to agree. I can’t wait for Helmut Hatchetman to retire.
Todfod (@todfod)
24th December 2024, 5:36
If it wasn’t for Verstappen, Marko wouldn’t have a job. After 2016, he’s had zero good decisions made for Red Bull’s driver line up. 8 years of either promoting the right driver at the wrong time, or the wrong driver in to that seat or letting go / unable to retain actual talent from the Red bull driver pool.
BLS (@brightlampshade)
19th December 2024, 10:03
I fully understand why Yuki would be upset to have missed out here, but mentally he just doesn’t look to have the strength/control for a top team. The way he kicks off on the radio about the most minor thing, imagine how much he’d lose it over a podium related issue!
Jere (@jerejj)
19th December 2024, 10:10
To be fair to him, he’s improved regarding radio outbursts, but his mental strength could still be an issue in a top team, so in this regard, understandable, even if he feels hard done by being overlooked despite his decent F1 racing experience.
Frank
19th December 2024, 11:21
And yet, if some of the top drivers kick off, they are lauded for their winning mentality.
Palindnilap (@palindnilap)
19th December 2024, 12:49
Not untrue. The thing is that in order to be lauded for a winning mentality, you have to win. This is a typical outcome bias.
BLS (@brightlampshade)
19th December 2024, 12:57
Or berated for their whining behaviour?
Tristan (@skipgamer)
19th December 2024, 15:40
That’s the sign of a champion though… All of them act like this in my time of watching. Bar perhaps Button.
Rory
20th December 2024, 9:46
… and Mansell
pcxmac (@pcxmac)
19th December 2024, 16:16
hes been on top of his game this year, and not exploding over the radio like the past. Dude is better than Lawson, better than Daniel, better than Max probably. And that’s is against the law @ RBR.
Alonslow
19th December 2024, 19:09
Imagine living in a world where Tsunoda, the man who couldn’t win F3 (beaten by the the mighty future F1 Champion Robert Shwartzman) nor F2 (Beated by 7WDC DNA Mick Schumacher) is this generational talent but nobody, not even other teams can see it.
SaMa (@f1g33k)
19th December 2024, 20:49
Imagine living in a world where the F1 champion’s team-mate is a prodigious talent who won every regional championship and completely flattened the competition after switching to world junior formulae, and was snatched by Red Bull when no one else could see it.
anon
19th December 2024, 21:21
There have been quite a few drivers who won GP2/F2 who have been criticised for their performances in Formula 1, and also examples of drivers who might not have a GP2/F2 or F3 title to their name, but were rated quite highly when competing in F1.
Pastor Maldonado was a GP2 champion in 2010, but was often a target for jokes in F1, whilst Stoffel Vandoorne won in 2015 and had many people singing his praises before entering Formula 1, only for his stint in the sport to be considered disappointing compared to his success in junior series.
Palmer won the 2014 GP2 championship, but most consider his career in F1 fairly anonymous, whilst we saw how de Vries (winner in 2019) was unceremoniously booted out by Red Bull in short order. Meanwhile, whilst Antonio Giovinazzi finished in a close 2nd place in 2016, people were talking him up as a hot prospect, but he was largely considered to have failed to live up to that reputation.
Equally, if we were to take your position of insisting on winning a Formula 2 or Formula 3 championship to mark yourself as a generational talent, then Max Verstappen would fail your criteria, given he finished 3rd in his Formula 3 campaign (Esteban Ocon was the title winner in 2014).
Alonslow
20th December 2024, 1:41
The only rule I have for F2 is simple, you are a potential top driver if you won it as a rookie, winning in on your 2nd year means you are only mediocre, 3rd year and on and you’re likely a backmarker.
Doesn’t mean you can’t be good if you were 2nd or 3rd in your first year and jumped to F1 inmediately or skipped the series outright but winning everything on the first year is a guaranteed of being a driver who can make it at a top team.
Let’s check it out with your names, Maldonado won it on his 4th year, so he’s nothing special, Vandoorne, second season so around a midfielder, Palmer (funny enough he was the one who beat Stoffel in 2014 putting a big * on Stoffel speed), won it on his 4th year so just as bad as Pastor, De Vries, took 3 years.
I don’t who talked about Gio as a hot prospect in 2016 (was it on this site? because I find it hard to believe), he couldn’t win his first season and that could be a good result if you look only at the standings but he lost it to Gasly, who was there for his 3th year (well let’s say 2nd since the first was only a few races) and who also is 2-3 years younger than Gio so not a good result.
See it’s a pretty good measuring tool.
Back on Tsunoda well he is not that exception to the rule driver, he didn’t fight for the title in F3 and while he did fought for the title in F2, he didn’t win against not amazing competition (Mick, Illot, Shwartzman, Mazepin, Zhou, Drugovich and so on, some who got to F1 and already are out) and is clear after all those years in Toro Rosso/Alpha Tauri/VCARB, that he is not this amazing talent, he could never beat Gasly, only around par with old and busted Ricciardo, and basically just a bit better than Lawson this year and worse than Lawson in 2023.
Max is irrelevant he never went to GP2 in the first place so he’s a wild card, but talking about Max, if Max spent his first year getting destroyed by Sainz and then getting beat by Ricciardo all the time then barely beating Gasly/Albon then no one would be hyping Max as this generational talent that RBR doesn’t want to see win because of reasons and that the other teams are blind to not see his talent.
anon
20th December 2024, 9:04
Alonslow, you hadn’t mentioned anything about winning either a Formula 2 or Formula 3 title in their rookie season in your original post, making it seem that you’ve invented that particular rule retrospectively. Equally, you were also talking about winning a Formula 3 title in your original post, so it was relevant to bring up Verstappen given you wanted to see a driver win either of those titles.
We will wait and see if it is really as good a measuring tool as you claim it is with Bortoleto, but many have questioned in recent years whether Formula 2 is now quite as good a tool at measuring driver talent as in the past.
Since 2018, the two most recent generation of Formula 2 cars have been plagued with reliability issues – frequent issues with clutches and onboard electrical systems and the F2/18 had issues with leaking fuel tanks in earlier iterations, just to name some of the more well reported issues.
Bruno Michel openly said that the F2/18 was unacceptably unreliable in 2018, and in 2020 admitted that the reliability issues were “reflecting badly on the championship” and starting to erode confidence in the value of that series. Even though some of the issues with the F2/18 were solved with the F2/24, the new car seems to have now introduced new problems – there were around 40 complaints of technical issues in 2024 with the new car (that we know of), with every single team having problems with the new car at some point in the season.
The Mecachrome V634T is also well known for having been extremely troublesome ever since it was introduced, with drivers complaining about inconsistent build quality, inconsistent power outputs and engines randomly shifting into “limp home” mode as just some of the known issues. It’s led to complaints that those reliability issues are playing too much of a part in performances and that the value of a title in Formula 2 is being devalued by those problems.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
20th December 2024, 0:45
I think your conspiracy theories often make sense, but this idea that tsunoda is somehow better than verstappen is absurd: he got destroyed by gasly, who couldn’t perform in the red bull next to verstappen.
There’s not ONE driver that could compete with verstappen atm, and tsunoda couldn’t even compete with a consistently pretty good driver like sainz, that red bull passed on for some unknown reason.
Polweiss
20th December 2024, 10:27
The problem with Sainz is that he is a sad boring guy. He can’t motivate a team. So with Verstappen it would be o much of the same robot style.
Only Facts!
19th December 2024, 10:04
I believe it was an very easy decision once the Perez situation has been decided.
RedBull was looking for the best wingman possible to Verstappen. Lawson waited patiently in the sidelines until Ricciardo tried to prove his worth, showing he can see the big picture. Very important quality in the event of team orders.
Tsunoda, on the other side, frequently had his heart in front of his mouth. Of course the lack of Honda backing him up after 2025 didn’t help also.
But will Lawson be able to couple with the characteristics of the car?
hunocsi (@hunocsi)
19th December 2024, 10:30
That doesn’t mean Tsunoda wouldn’t be a team player. Hell, he offered his help to Verstappen in his fight for the WDC in 2021!
Ed
19th December 2024, 11:29
Yuki would do a better job than Kawson at redbull, they just don’t like Yuki
Axel
19th December 2024, 10:09
I don’t think Lawson is a better driver at the moment. But he is the safer choice. Yuki is very likable with his outbursts, but he does not seem like a driver that could handle the pressure at Red Bull. In my opinion Lawson might seem arrogant at times, but in 11 races he has shown more composure and stability than Yuki has shown in 4 seasons.
black (@black)
19th December 2024, 10:12
Probably Red Bull’s decision it’s not about who beat who outright but more about their potential.
Tsunoda is a known entity, he has battled 4 different teammates in 4 years and tested for the big team. And most of Alpha Tauri’s/RB’s cars were build to suit him as well. Red Bull probably have all the data they need on him. He’s no Stroll but certainly not the next Verstappen either.
Lawson has been thrown twice halfway through the season and performed decently, he hasn’t even had a proper full season with all the preparation that goes with it or a car that was designed at least in part around him. In an ideal world he’d get at least a full season and then we could compare with more certainty his abilities
I assume, even though Tsunoda has ‘beaten’ Lawson in their time together, Red Bull probably feel Lawson has a higher ceiling than the ‘known’ Tsunoda and thus he deserves a chance.
Jamie Franklin
19th December 2024, 10:29
While I think Tsunoda is great, nobody really needs to be Max’s teammate. Obviously Max will be faster than either option as one of the most talented drivers of his generation, and that car will be primarily developed with Max’s feedback in mind. I think Lawson will do a decent job but his junior results show that he’s solid but never really been the quickest guy on the grid.
I hope Yuki gets a chance elsewhere, think it will suit him at Alpine/Haas/Sauber level.
slowmo (@slowmo)
19th December 2024, 10:33
Tsunoda is not top tier and has had long enough in the sport now that we know he’s not going to get dramatically better. Lawson might not be top tier either but he at least still has development potential that Tsunoda doesn’t have. Tsunoda has had some very weak teammates and in my opinion the only decent metric we have is his performance against Gasly who made him look pretty average at best.
For the record I think Lawson was still a terrible shout for Red Bull and they should have gone for Sainz when they had the chance but that would likely have upset Verstappen and his entourage. It feels to me like Red Bull always wanted Norris and just couldn’t get the deal done to entice him away from Mclaren. Any driver signing after that was damage limitation. Lawson is just a stop gap to see if he’s got the speed or whether they rotate to looking at their next big prospect.
pcxmac (@pcxmac)
19th December 2024, 16:18
McLaren will walk all over RBR next year. Lawson will just have to stay off the podium for a while until he figures it out.
Tarn Burton (@yitzchak)
19th December 2024, 10:58
Please pick different colors for the charts. The Gasly and Tsunoda colors look identical and the other charts are very close in tint. Maybe pick a single consistent color for each driver thoughout the charts?
User463
19th December 2024, 12:55
Yeah, came to say the same thing.
Kyle S
19th December 2024, 13:35
💯
Illegible
Shimks (@shimks)
19th December 2024, 20:41
Yep, really weird colour choices, and quite often. Don’t you realise some of us have black and white monitors?
joe jopling (@jop452)
19th December 2024, 11:06
Yuki is not mature enough to get the seat, and they already have a driver whose emotions get the better of him. A lot to ask from Lawson but if he does not deliver he will be replaced…RB still have Dan Ric under contract for nxt yr, good backup
Jere (@jerejj)
19th December 2024, 15:34
Back in September, I thought Ricciardo would continue to be involved with Red Bull to some extent or in some capacity, but that hasn’t seemed to be the case, so I don’t know if one can definitively say that he’d still be under contract next year.
Nevertheless, all cards were looked at regarding him, so his time as an F1 driver is over for good, which even he declared recently, so clearly a matter of having zero motivation left after all his struggles.
Arie
20th December 2024, 12:47
Ricciardo is already gaining weight with regular bbq and beer.
Jem (@j1jem)
19th December 2024, 11:08
I suspect Yuki sealed his fate in Bahrain when he lost his temper and chucked his car at Daniel. There’s only one driver on the grid who’s allowed to do that!
Edvaldo
19th December 2024, 12:48
Tsunoda didn’t crush him completely, as is to be expected from someone driving the car for more than 100 races against a guy acting twice as a replacement driver.
But he was better and he is the more experienced one. We all know he’s there because of the engines but could not expect the team to pass on a driver with 4 full seasons of experience to bring one with less than half a season to replace Perez.
Gerrit
19th December 2024, 12:54
One thing people forget is Lawson has 6 years experience in the Red Bull outfit. Done the testing miles, done the simulator work, involved in car development projects, driven as display driver in a host of older Red Bull cars, Lapped in the Verstappen Red Bull car in FP1 not far off the pace. Tsunoda has had four years as a driver, Lawson has 6 years deep in the Red Bull organisation to display his mental toughness over the likes of other Red Bull drivers such as Gasly, etc.
One could argue that Tsunoda reach his level of competence (or incompetence) and maybe Red Bull felt he would not progress as a level headed driver much further. Tsunoda will be as much in the spotlight as Lawson for the 2025 season, has this latest Red Bull decision “destroyed” his confidence and desire to compete? His only path forward is hoping that Lawson fails or Stroll retires from F1. No where else to go but Indy Cars (mmmmmmmmmmmm who tested a Gannassi car recently?).
Jere (@jerejj)
19th December 2024, 15:36
Tsunoda’s Ganassi test happened during the Las Vegas GP week, but I agree with you thoroughly regarding the points about Lawson compared to Tsunoda, which definitely puts him in a better position in the big picture.
Nulla Pax (@nullapax)
19th December 2024, 13:19
I don’t know what Red Bulls problem is with Yuki, either racism or fear that he won’t play second driver to Max is my guess, but it’s a crying shame that he isn’t being given a shot in the Red Bull.
Liam seems to have a fair bit of attitude as well though, so things might get interesting if he can match Max early on in the season ;)
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
21st December 2024, 23:10
Which I don’t see how would be possible, since he wasn’t even able to beat tsunoda, and there’s quite far between him and verstappen.
MichaelN
19th December 2024, 13:29
The problem with these comparisons between drivers at different seasons in different cars is that if you do it long enough, you can end up in a loop where the supposed worst driver of the lot actually ends up outscoring someone far higher up the chain, creating an endless cycle. Something like Gasly > Tsunoda > Ricciardo > Verstappen > Gasly.
Ultimately, Tsunoda at a front-running team just doesn’t make sense. His results against Gasly, arguably the only meaningful comparison he’s had, were unimpressive. That Ricciardo could do little more than match Tsunoda sealed his fate at the team, and with Honda on the way out, there’s no need to placate them by giving Tsunoda a ‘chance’. And then, there’s really nothing else Red Bull can do other than bring Lawson on board.
Horner doubling down on Pérez, or whatever reason, apparently made them reluctant to contact Sainz who was the obvious option to pursue. Horner is the one that painted the team into this corner, and he’ll be hoping Lawson is at least halfway decent at the sharp end of the grid – if indeed that’s where Red Bull will be next year. We’ll see how well they do without any input from Newey.
Lapov Onor
19th December 2024, 13:49
Have seen a video this morning on WhatsApp, someone suggesting that the decision may be related to Honda leaving and the imminent arrival of Ford. Honda have historically ‘requested’ a Honda backed driver in the team somewhere. Yuki is Honda backed. If he has a good year there would be pressure to retain him, potentially upsetting Ford.
Gerritt mentioned Aston Martin if Stroll retired – with Honda heading there in 2026 it could well be his face fits…
Nulla Pax (@nullapax)
19th December 2024, 13:55
That would suit me down to the ground.
Let Lance go and pretend to be something else, and put Yuki with Fernando and Newey.
Yes please :)
Lapov Onor
19th December 2024, 14:04
F1 Driver – a glamorous career but as Nico pointed out, the level of dedication required to be at the top is draining.
I just don’t feel like Lance is enjoying it any more.
Jere (@jerejj)
19th December 2024, 15:38
Lapov Onor His Honda affiliation is indeed an important factor & more or less what almost everyone has pointed out, although he could become an Aston Martin full-time driver for 2026 alternatively if Lawrence decided to move Lance aside, which he could do if he wanted to.
Paul (@frankjaeger)
19th December 2024, 13:55
Yuki isn’t good enough, the charts above make this clear. Yuki is a poor pick for RB, Lawson is a poor pick for RB, Hadjar is a poor pick for RB – but who else do they really have?
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
21st December 2024, 23:16
As a top team, they’re not forced to pick drivers affiliated with them, they could’ve got sainz, giving him a choice he couldn’t refuse, since he’s going to a team that might not win a race any more ever.
Philip (@philipgb)
19th December 2024, 13:57
I think Red Bull really missed the boat with Sainz being on the market letting him slip to Williams of all teams. He might not be in the very top tier of drivers, but he’s been close enough to Leclerc to be a dependable source of constructor points. You put him in the car alongside Verstappen and then either the team has two cars scoring points representative of its capability, or you establish that basically no other driver when put alongside him stands a chance
Instead I don’t realistically think we’re going to see anything different with Lawson than we saw with Gasly and Albon. Drivers who might actually be respectable performers by most teams standards being made absolute mince meat out of
Rahim.RG
19th December 2024, 13:58
Red Bull wanted someone who would be fast enough to be Max’s wingman but not enough to beat or make his life difficult and that’s what they chose. Yuki would have given them a problem as i believe his mentality would have been his biggest strength. When I see yuki I see a driver who is fiesty yet humble and is willing to learn. A mentality like that will only help him improve and get better. I am 100% sure by the end of a season against Max, he’d dig deep and come out right around his pace. But like I said they don’t want that. The image that they have of Yuki is sadly not doing any favours to him which is sad because I really feel on merit he deserves that Red Bull seat and I think he would have been great there. They should have atleast tried him for first 6 races and seen how he does and if not then put lawson there from RB. Anyway, good luck to the both of them. Hope Yuki comes back stronger from this.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
21st December 2024, 23:19
I think this is exaggerated, if tsunoda indeed had this ability, he would’ve been wanted by other top teams, a driver who can match verstappen after a season would potentially be the 2nd best driver atm in f1.
Michael (@freelittlebirds)
19th December 2024, 14:17
I think it has to do with personality more than performance. They want a #2 driver and Lawson looks more easy to handle than Tsunoda. It’s clear that Max and Jos don’t want any competition within the team (or the sport for that matter as Max keeps on saying).
They are not there for the fight or the hunt or the journey, they are there for the celebrations, the money, and the glory. How they get that doesn’t matter to them so Liam is the obvious choice since Marko cannot drive the 2nd car.
sam
19th December 2024, 14:57
Yuki has had time to show everything he has. They must think Liam has more to offer.
Alonslow
19th December 2024, 15:30
I think that Yuki being passed on is 100% on him being a Honda driver so with the risk of him going away in 2026 they’re not willing to give him the seat unless Lawson is completely trash then maybe they do a swap Gasly/Albon style.
Still it’s not like RB has much to choose from, Lawson was never great in F2 (9th the same year Piastri was champ, 3rd next year losing to Drugovich and Pourchaire), but then again neither was Yuki all that hot either (3rd losing to Schumacher and Illot) and Hadjar is another guy that needed two years in F2 and didn’t win it either, at best he’s barely better than Lawson and Yuki.
Now Lawson is bit younger than Yuki so you could see him potentially improve and be better than Yuki and that’s what RB is betting on but even if Lawson has a bit more potential it’s not gonna be a high ceiling anyway, he’s clearly a stop gap for the next RB driver in 2026, who will probably be Lindblad, he seems to be their best talent, very young, pretty much the entire season he was sixteen and even though his season went off the rails in the last 3 races he still got fourth while being 3 to 5 years younger than the podium placers, if his F2 season is solid, he’s a lock for a Toro Rosso seat.
BMW P85 V10
19th December 2024, 15:42
Red Bull also might have considered the amount of crashes and the severity of them. They can’t afford to loose about 5 million on damages at the current development rate. You will fall behind if you can’t bring any more updates.
RBAlonso (@rbalonso)
19th December 2024, 15:51
I think Racing Bulls are in an existential crisis and Red Bull really need to consider selling the team.
If the junior team exists to create generational talent for the first team then I think it’s achieved it’s aim. But given this is 2 drivers since really 2005, is it worth it? None of the options this year are good enough to be world champion at any point. No Red Bull backed driver besides Seb and Max has ever won the title and the next best was Perez with P2, which even Webber didn’t manage. Strong graduates Ricciardo and Sainz have never won more than a handful of races.
At what point do Red Bull concede that looking inwards is a huge limitation? The discovery of Max literally at the same race Vettel announced going to Ferrari looks more like luck than planning. The merry-go-round post Ricciardo has been laughable and not committing to Albon left them with Perez, committing to Perez cost them other options. I think it’s time to sell racing bulls and back drivers with personal sponsorship like they did with Bernoldi. Culling the list of average drivers and focusing on the next superstar is their game, they need to admit that doesn’t need 4 seats every year for decades.
Alonslow
19th December 2024, 16:07
Why would they cut the team? I’m gonna take a guess that running a 2nd team brings enough money and sport advantages to be worth, fans that don’t like it it’s not a reason to sell it.
And really 2 drivers are a lot, what more could you possible want?, the champions since Toro Rosso exists are Alonso, Raikkonen (both old drivers), Hamilton (Mclaren backed), Button (old driver), Vettel (RB backed), Rosberg (Williams? Mercedes?) and Max (RB).
2 of 4 backed champs, I think they have done a good job, and on the grid outside the Red Bull teams they have Gasly, Albon and Sainz, not bad at all.
RBAlonso (@rbalonso)
19th December 2024, 18:08
My opinion is that the team simply isn’t providing value for money as it has historically.
For instance, Ricciardo had a close battle with Vergne while the 2 Red Bull drivers were the Champion and the experienced number 2. So having a team to bring through a replacement for the number 2 made sense. That driver would then be able to cover if the number 1 departed. But since May 2016 that hasn’t been how Toro Rosso has been run. They gave a 17yo Max a year and then promoted him, now Lawson has had 11 races and has been promoted.
The drivers they have promoted to red bull in between have been pressed by the media when they are underperforming and the pressure doubles on both the junior team driver and the red bull number 2. So the conveyor belt only works if the team is used to prepare the junior for the first team – something that has clearly failed.
I think Red Bull need to stop worrying about internally promoting drivers at huge cost and accept the junior team is at its peak value and move it on. It’s had a good run but if red bull think they have a superstar they can simply move them into the second red bull seat as racing bulls is more or less pointless as a testing ground.
Whether in a cost cap era a manufacturer should have 2 teams, one that they can instruct to interfere with races ie Ricciardo in Singapore is another argument entirely. But I think that closing Racing Bulls offers red bull a chance to look at other drivers and have better succession planning for when Max leaves. If Max left tomorrow they’d be in really poor shape, if that’s true the junior team can’t be fit for purpose.
Alonslow
19th December 2024, 19:03
How do you know? Unless you have access to Racing Bulls financials, if the team is not losing money then it’s worth it for them.
I don’t see Toro Rosso working so different pre or post Max either, Vettel did some races in 2007 and 1 full year in 2008 and upgraded, Ricciardo took 2 years but also went up, Max took 1 year and a few races in 2017 and moved up, Gasly did 1 year and moved up (and then back), Albon was the first one to be move up with few races like Lawson and only because Gasly was so bad at the main team which is kinda a similar situation now.
So historically the prospects stay at Toro Rosso 1 year, maybe 2, at most then move up, we had some years with Gasly/Tsunoda as the lineup and both of them not moving to the main team but this is also nothing new back in 2009 to 2011 they had Bourdais, Alguersuari and Buemi, the same point you are making now that if Max left they would be doomed could also have been made those years if Vettel left, then Webber/Bourdais or Webber/Alguersuari or Webber/Buemi none of them really good pairings.
So a few bad years without any superstar is not really a new situation for the junior team and once again, what’s the point of closing the team? nothing stops Red Bull from looking at other drivers outside their promotion, that’s pretty much how Perez got in, Vettel too he was a BMW Sauber test driver before, it makes no sense to argue it’s a negative to have another team to test drivers and see far more data.
RBAlonso (@rbalonso)
19th December 2024, 20:07
I’ve read red bull put 45m (or a third of the total value or racing bulls) per year and that the junior team costs more than the senior as it doesn’t make much prize money. For me, it’s a loss making operation and therefore only justifiable if it serves the purpose or training or assessing drivers.
Of the drivers you’ve listed, I think we can consider Max and Seb as talent outliers. Ricciardo had 50 races, Gasly 26 due to some races at the back end of 17, Albon 12, Lawson 11. So there has been a shift.
I don’t think the driver comparison is between 2009 and 2011. Seb wasn’t established then, so the comparison with Max is when they are both 4 time Champions. In 2014, Red Bull had Ricciardo (a promotion), Vergne, Kyvat, Sainz and Buemi in the wings- all who became successful drivers. That is a much stronger list than at the moment.
Perez got in as he was a free agent and the junior programme had failed at that point. My feeling is that red bull aren’t attracting top talent as the succession planning is so poor. I just don’t see what purpose the team serves if the drivers are promoted based on testing and sim work given, since Gasly 5 years ago, the promoted driver has a maximum of 26 races in the car. That’s just not enough time to get a proper read unless they are a superstar, by which point Red Bull could just promote them to the first team or loan them out. I think they need 2 seats with a potential loan not 4.
Honda
19th December 2024, 15:52
As usual there are multiple mistakes in this article but without writing a wall to text to explain it. Here is what you want to know in brief:
2021: he lost 1-20 in quali and 32-110pts to Gasly
2022: he lost 9-12 in quali and 12-23pts to Gasly
2023: He won 8-2 in quali and 2-0pts to NDV
2023 He won 4-3 in quali and 15-6pts to Ricciardo
2023: He won 4-1 in quali but 0-2pts to Lawson
2024: He won 12-6 in quali and 22-12pts to Ricciardo
2024: He won 6-0 in quali and 8-4pts to Lawson
We can immediately see 2021 he was obviously not ready, he got smashed, unfortunately for him AT used to be a good car back then. He had 1yrs in F3 and F2. In Comparison Lawson had 2yrs in both F2 and F3 and SF in Japan and half a year sim work which IMO is a good preparation to F1.
But since 2021. He literally matched Gasly in his second year it self. The discrepancy in pts was due to Baku race where some how the DRS flap broke and he was forced to pit due to black and white flag to tape it. AT had good car there it should have been P5 and P6 with 18pts instead of 10pts. So he lost 8pts where as Gasly made 10pts. Had both car had same problem it would be 12-13pts instead of 12-23.
Next 3 team mates were relatively easy for him in comparison. Hadjar is also having natural speed and rated higly so even though he lacks experience I have a feeling he has speed to challenge him instead of his previous 3 team mates.
Neil (@neilosjames)
19th December 2024, 17:22
There’s the obvious ‘affiliation’ side of it, in that Lawson is very much ‘Red Bull’ while Tsunoda is probably 50/50 Red Bull/Honda. If they wanted an external candidate they’d have picked one, so they clearly wanted to keep the drive in-house… and in the absence of any sign of a significant excess of talent dwelling in one car or the other, they were always going to pick ‘their’ driver ahead of a driver who isn’t entirely theirs.
And there’s also the way the two drivers come across, at least to an outsider (eg, Tsunoda’s famous radio stuff, etc).
But performance wise, there’s probably more benefit to picking Lawson as well. Tsunoda is a relative old hand and it’s plain for anyone to see that he’s average at best so far as the grid is concerned. He’s solid lower midfield but no more, and Red Bull have four seasons of data to tell them that. Whereas Lawson’s got more ‘unknown’ to him, so there’s actually some chance (however small) that he could be upper-midfield or better.
That, and Lawson’s been a mid-season sub twice, never had a pre-season and has always been in a position of taking over someone else’s car/engineer/team… yet hasn’t at all been embarrassed by Tsunoda, an established part of the team with far more experience.
Completely agree with Red Bull on this, I’d have picked Lawson as well.
Gregor
19th December 2024, 18:51
So im guessing Hadjar can forget about a seat in either of RedBulls? ;)
Marcus (@marcusw)
20th December 2024, 11:23
Does Yuki’s affiliation with Honda mean he’s in with a shout of a seat at Aston Martin for 2026 or beyond? Liam on the other hand is clearly a ‘Red Bull’ driver so possibly a better long term investment for the team, regardless of their relative performances over the past season.
Ross Dawson
21st December 2024, 4:02
Good Article… It would be good to also show race pace ie how many laps quicker than your team mate as this is a key metric for the teams. Liam was faster in 155 laps, Yuki 135. This didn’t include Mexico where Yuki crashed on the first lap.
zsim (@zakfsim)
21st December 2024, 8:17
For me personally, just the numbers comparison for quali or race don’t show the full picture, I’d love to see ave quali deficit and ave race finish as examples of more detailed stats to compare the two drivers
They could be getting trounced like max has done to Perez or just edging them out by a tenth and these overall stats don’t tell us the full picture